Forward thinking, part 2
07/01/2009
What will be the main issues affecting the net in 2009?
Sales expert
Rob Kelly
TradeDoubler
As with the latter part of this year, it’s perhaps no surprise that the dominant theme for next year will continue to be the economic downturn. Online has thus far proved to be more resilient than traditional mediums. Mounting cost pressures, increasing media convergence and the growing sophistication of social and rich media technologies have created a set of circumstances that may well serve to stimulate rather than stifle internet innovation in 2009.
2009 will see loyalty sites continue to grow, with cash-back likely to prove more popular than points-based rewards. The spread of devices like the iPhone will move the web closer towards becoming truly mobile, rather than simply trying to squeeze the web onto a mobile. Premium CPMs will come under increasing pressure and encourage large media owners to look for alternative methods of monetisation. This is already evident in the growing inclusion of shopping sections and initiatives such as the Sun’s cash-back shopping. There will be a mindset shift as more media owners try to make money from selling to their audience rather than just from selling their audience. The growth of alternative methods of monetisation - ad exchanges, backfill networks, as well as increasing use of affiliate models - will also affect smaller publishers.
Rob Kelly is head of publisher sales at TradeDoubler
IT guru
Rob Lovell
ThinkGrid
I think that 2009’s going to see a dramatic change in the way organisations use outsourced or hosted services. With increased speed, choice and availability, access to internet-based resources is becoming even more all-encompassing than previously seen. Add that to the credit crunch encouraging us to be as streamlined and efficient as possible and it’s inevitable that organisations of all types from businesses to public sector will use the net to transform the way they buy, consume and benefit from IT.
Advances in technologies such as virtualisation, Internet Protocol (IP) and automation mean that the net can now be used as a vehicle that can host and operate an entire IT infrastructure. In 2009, we’ll see a trend whereby parts of this infrastructure can move from being expensive hardware and software assets in an office, to cheaper and more simple net-based services - delivered from things like cloud computing. Data centre companies become hosters, delivering applications, infrastructure and services down the wire, making the wide area network a must have. In what’s the equivalent to “cloud computing 1.0”, we’ll see the growth of business IT on demand where organisations can allow individuals to connect from anywhere in the world to office IT resources that are purchased on monthly, ‘as needed’ basis. Not only will this save considerable time and money but as the past has consistently proven, the first steps taken by individuals in a business will lead to an explosion that ripples across the rest of society."
Rob Lovell is CEO and co-founder of ThinkGrid
Open source guru
Tristan Nitot
Mozilla Europe
In recent years, we’ve been storing a lot of data in the cloud: just think of the amount of private information that social networks have access to. Up to now, apart from a few high-profile miss-steps, these services have been acting pretty responsibly with our data, mostly because they didn’t want their reputations to be damaged.
But things are now different. With the economic downturn, many of these services may face problems. They’ve been making money through indirect models, such as advertising, which may be especially sensitive to a downturn. If you look at the terms of use of some of these services, it may allow them to do a lot more with your data than you initially realised, and some of these companies may be more in need of revenue than ever. It’s much harder to be good when times are bad. So, are we going to see private data being sold to third parties? Is the information, for example, about the number of pizza and beer parties I’ve been to this year (which I’ve
mentioned in all my “status” updates) going to be sold to life insurance companies!?
There’s a saying about the growth in online participation over the last few years, that “the currency of the web is trust”. It’s my worry that this currency may be about to be devalued.
Tristan is the president of Mozilla Europe
Project manager
Ané-Mari Peter
on-IDLE
2009 is going to be tough economically - everyone’s feeling the pinch and this will be the main issue affecting technology growth and new business. Even in a downturn though, on-IDLE’s customers have to continue to market - not only to sustain their own business, but also because a downturn is a time of opportunity to make your voice heard, reposition yourself or highlight a particular niche service that would be more expensive and more difficult in a healthy - i.e. cluttered marketplace.
Companies are not only slashing marketing budgets, they’re looking for cost savings, increased efficiency and elimination of duplication across all areas of the organisation - and here on-IDLE will be encouraging customers by either developing automated workflow systems such as virtual press offices, virtual research/community portals, email marketing, CRM and implementing or streamlining e-commerce.
2009 will be the year where mash-ups, APIs and cloud computing and
technologies will start to impact on all levels of the internet - real
interface design innovation will be needed to display these - in a usable and accessible way.
Online Video and TV on demand online will continue to impact not only on usage, but bandwidth - 2009 could finally be the year where large volume and more tailored broadband packages become available.
Ané-Mari is the co-founder of on-IDLE
Media & PR expert
Tim Gibbon
Elemental Communications
Some of the main issues we’ll face throughout 2009 aren’t particularly new. For me, some of the main issues will fall into three areas permission, saturation and security.
Permission from quite a few different perspectives is going to be quite a bone of contention. On one hand we now see it as it should be -
collaboration, learning, growing and sharing on the right path with social networks being the quickest facilitator for many years. However, what’s the cost of this? With the Web and networks slowly being more open, we are bound to see the more security breaches that fall in and outside of our control.
The digital rights management (DRM) model appears that it wants to change and with a lot of movement in that space (more recently by Amazon music store - tinyurl.com/ynsdss) we may experience a better change of direction for all parties. Is content under more the control of creators, owners and all of those in-between? Probably not. Will we see more solutions that are beneficial for all parties? Let us hope so.
2008 became the year of the app and widget, so you can learn how to add apps to your phone via a television commercial. Who would have though that ‘app’ would be a TV word? Unlike viral marketing, it has deeper and far-reaching impact to the point that job titles and departments for advertising, marketing and PR agencies have fully embraced it - to the extreme. I have never witnessed adoption of a new marketing technology medium so quickly. With the recession acting as a catalyst to drum up potentially new channels for brands from all industries and interest, this area will be flooded with the (stunningly) good, the bad and the (extremely) ugly. With so much content now available to download and peer-to-peer (P2P) not such a dirty turn of phrase anymore, bandwidth becomes more of a precious commodity. Free and unlimited terms used with extreme caution in marketing material makes me wonder when the concept and ability of how much we can consume and when, reaches tipping point.
We mustn’t forget our old friend spam. It’s not exactly got any better has it? It’s even worse (and yes that is possible) when you’re spam attacked, but unfortunately I envisage this issue getting a lot worse before there’s any glimmer of it getting better. Microsoft and others have long debated how to address spam and viruses - now it seems Microsoft are going one better and releasing a free anti-virus product in 2009. It’s not made everyone sigh with relief, prompting AVG (long time free anti-virus providers) to communicate a press release to air concerns (tinyurl.com/5ux4hn). Is it an issue? For sure, especially if you’re spending far too much time sorting, deleting and spending a small fortune for protection.
Complex issues aren’t going to disappear overnight. However, we’ll continue to see prolific development in the Web and related technologies space, particularly in broadcasting and mobile. The recession may take the wind out of our sails in terms of budget for a while, but we will definitely continue to experience growth, innovation and breathtaking technologies more frequently in the year to come. Don’t you just love the web?
Tim is director of Elemental Communications
Content specialist
Siim Vips
Modera
The tools that are available for organisations use to promote their products and services will be a major issue. The efficiency and cost savings that clients demand will be the key throughout 2009.
Marketers will start to invest more in tools and undertaking more of the digital advertising, marketing and PR aspects of production work rather than using the services of agencies and consultancies. SEO and online marketing service providers will need to up their game in delivering marketing product services to their clients, but here lies more problems - why outsource production work when it can be managed from start to finish in-house with low-cost and free tools?
Software and Web infrastructure providers will also reap the benefits of the growth in this culture by providing the means for small, medium and large brands to make saving while raising the efficiency running digital marketing campaigns.
In such difficult economic times there will be great resistance between
marketing service providers and technology providers with the ultimate benefits to be experienced by the client and the developers delivering the tools.
Siim Vips is founder and CEO of Modera
Social media and comms expert
Rachel Hawkes
Elemental Communications
The main issue facing the digital industries in 2009, will - in my opinion - primarily centre around the financial climate, which is tipped to completely bottom-out next year before it starts to get better. If this is indeed the way it will play out, then budgets will become ever more strained, and clients will naturally want more ‘bang for their buck.’
Smaller budgets with increased demand for return on investment (ROI) will force digital marketers and developers to look at new and more effective - both in terms of cost and time - ways of delivering increased output for less input. It will drive both developers and marketers to worker smarter, not harder and can potentially drive a new innovative wave in the digital world.
It will be the smaller and niche agencies and consultancies that can
potentially shine throughout the financially low periods of 2009, as they’ll bring more business to their door through lower costs (thanks to lower overheads) and the ability to focus more fully on a client’s needs and budgets. The issue that will come from this, however, is how they can continue to capitalise on this as the markets start to steady themselves and brands gain confidence allocating more generous budgets again.
Amongst other issues facing the net in 2009 will be how the open market of social media will continue to develop. The launch of Google’s Open Social Foundation has been rather quite since its launch this year, although I think this will start to come into its own mid next year as innovation in this area grows and the demand from consumers to have an open net starts to come into its own. The official launch of Google’s Friend Connect is timely, as it allows brands to look at introducing small social aspects to their website easily.
We’re seeing more established social networks and brands embrace the more of the open culture such as a MySpace, Netvibes and Vodafone three-way through MySpace Open Platform and the announcement of its support of the Google Friend Connect with MySpaceID being a component of it. This is surely a trend we’re likely to see more of throughout the next year.
And on that note, I’d like to be a fly on the wall in Yahoo’s 2009 strategy meeting!
Rachel Hawkes is an account director at Elemental
Content specialist
Stuart Dean
Cognifide
On the top of the list of challenges for 2009 is, without doubt, going to be budgets and the biggest priority to come of that will be the return on investment (ROI).
It will be companies that market their way through a recession, try new models, ideas and technologies that will come out the other side stronger, and in a better position than competitors. It’s important at the best of times to step outside your comfort zone, but never more so than during a tough financial (global) climate. By continually challenging yourself and your team to think of new ways of doing things, you can foster an internal spirit of healthy competition which drives productivity and innovation.
We’re going to have to be more prudent than ever, making sure that every penny in the pound is worked hard, and this will require more flexibility both from clients and agencies. By working to an agile model, we are able to refine and optimise all aspects of a project; be it budget, timescale, or deliverables.
With the increased saturation of powerful web-enabled mobile phones and more affordable data costs from mobile operators, the challenge for both brand owners and web and software developers alike will be to do deliver user-friendly mobile ready websites and applications.
Stuart Dean is the chief executive at Cognifide
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