Portable potential, part 2
24/06/2008
Will the mobile web dominate the future of the internet?
Ecommerce specialist
Chris Barling
Actinic
I like solid technology that simply works. If the question is: will mobile access to the web become cheaper, faster and totally ubiquitous? The answer is an undoubted yes – and soon.
If we ask the question ‘Will the web only be accessed through mobile devices?’, the waters are a lot more muddied. It’s taken more than 20 years for mobile phones to start replacing fixed lines in large numbers. To use a phone you don’t need a big screen and keyboard. To access the net on the move, these are factors.
So my conclusion is that the fixed web, connected to a PC or similar, will be with us for a while. Probably things will change when the next generation of technology appears. I expect this to embrace decent and reliable speech recognition, and projection of images onto glasses. But we’ve been waiting a long time for these to arrive.
Chris founded ecommerce company Actinic in 1996
Web video guru
Ifron Watkins
Coull
The most exciting thing about the mobile web is the potential it holds for video and subsequently for brands, broadcasters and publishers. Although still in the very early stages, mobile video is a very popular area for growth, and may well be the driver for users to demand more cost-effective data packages from operators.
A study by Mobile Data Services in the US found that 30 per cent of 18-24 year olds and 20 per cent of 25-34 year olds thought having the ability to download video to their mobile handset was important. This is equal to the amount that wanted the ability to download games.
To put that into monetary terms, research conducted by Telephia found that mobile video generated $35million in Q3 in 2006, which more than quadrupled in size to $146million in the first quarter of 2007 in the US alone. A year later, I can only presume that this figure has grown substantially, with the manufacturers bringing specialised video handsets to market and the growth of video blogging and social networking.
Some handsets, such as LG’s Beauty, Nokia’s N95 and Motorola’s Z10, have video editing functionality. This allows users to shoot a video and edit it directly from the handset – quite intelligent editing too, such as adding music, voiceovers, cutting out segments of the video and even adding slow motion, text and still images.
The possibilities with mobile are endless. We’re starting to see slow growth of mobile commerce – where people can pay for goods and services (mostly low-cost goods) from their mobile phone, this is only going to grow.
It’s the way commerce is headed. Combine that with video (particularly interactive video) – and there is huge potential here for brands to not only engage and interact with their users, but also to drive sales through the mobile channel.
Most social networking sites allow for direct upload from mobile to web, and sites like Qik enable people to do live video broadcasting directly from their mobile phone – it’s safe to say this is a key area for growth.
Mobile is highly engaging, personal and portable. All of these elements will ensure that it gives web a run for its money – but it’s not about competing. It’s about integrating the experience from web to mobile and providing users with what they want in the format they want it.
Ifron Watkins is CEO of Coull, a provider of online video advertising products
Web filtering specialist
Eamonn Doyle
Bloxx
The online, anytime, anywhere potential of mobile devices means that mobile will most certainly play a big part in the future of web. The mobile web has long been looked upon as the web ‘nirvana’, causing many a web developer to scratch their head over the past few years as they have worked on ways to truly unlock its potential. This nirvana has yet to be reached, with technical and usability problems resulting in current incarnations being clunky and far from the user experience demanded by the modern technology-savvy consumer. In fact, in some ways there are parallels with the early days of the web all over again, although we all know the rate of change we have experienced there.
Eamonn Doyle is managing director of Bloxx
Content specialist
Stuart Dean
Cognifide
It’s been brewing for a while; users move from the web to mobile phones, largely due to their portability. Even with great new handsets that seem to do everything bar read your mind, there are still many barriers (from garden walls to high tariff costs) that may deter more of us from fully embrace mobile web usage on the scale that advertisers, networks, publishers and technology providers would like us to.
The mobile isn’t so much the future of the web or mobile versus web, it’s more like an excellent opportunity to extend the great tools that are being created on a daily basis. Instead, and more in line what consumers are comfortable with at this stage, we are seeing how the mobile can be integrated into everyday life, especially in the social, entertainment and lifestyle arenas.
Mobile social networks have been around for awhile, but as the surge in interest in more popular sites hit a mass audience, the mobile web drops into the agenda again. It well could be the way that the aforementioned guide users in becoming more used to mobile web usage and especially being more at ease with m-commerce. If things continue as they are going, the growth and development of mobile (from handsets, to interface and networks) then the market may start to see effective monetisation from mobile. This will make the platform interesting, but it will come at a cost.
Stuart Dean is the chief executive at content management service Cognifide
Applications guru
Roger Greene
Ipswitch
Mobile will be a bigger part of the future of the web, but not all of it. Laptops will continue to play a major role (growing in volume, but shrinking as a percentage) as mobile devices come of age. The iPhone was an impressive teaser of what to expect in the future, but it’s not close to being a product with mass market appeal such as the iPod. Once high quality GPS is included and the cost comes down; bandwidth is plentiful and cheap; more mobile apps are developed; and there are more high-end competitive devices, then mobile will take over a significant share of the web. I think when that happens it will be less about the browser and more about widgets/gadgets and other special-purpose applications. People will occasionally use browsers on their mobile devices, but they’ll be more interested in getting to what they want quickly, and opening a web browser and selecting a bookmark or typing one in takes too long. Designers will get better at fitting more information into a small space as well, just as PC developers have got better at creating icons over the past two decades. The pace will seem fast, and there will be a steady stream of new product introductions, but if you look at it from a distance, major progress will still be measured in years.
Roger Greene is founder and CEO of Ipswitch, developers of innovative IT software
Web standards expert
Christian Heilmann
Yahoo
Yes, it will be a large part of the web in the future. It is a trend that is already visible in Asia and in Europe we’ve seen a steep decline in sales of desktops and an increase in laptop sales. The next step will be to even ditch that and do most of our day-to-day web living on mobile devices. As mobile devices are mostly contract-bound, there is the benefit of people upgrading their hardware more often, which is an exciting prospect for developers. The gap between the bleeding-edge developer geeks with the newest gadgets and the people they build products for will get smaller and smaller. Mobile devices also allow for location-based services, which means you’ll be able to get the information you need right now right where you are about where you are and not have to search a lot yourself.
Christian works for Yahoo as a web developer, and he’s a self-proclaimed “web standards nut”
Open source guru
Tristan Nitot
Mozilla Europe
Mobile may not be the future of the web, but it’s certainly going to be part of it. The reason for this is that the lack of full-size keyboard prevents us from typing lots of text, and a smaller screen is limiting the experience when it comes to photos and such. However, having the web in your pocket is definitely a must in many occasions, especially while on the move. At Mozilla, we’re working on a mobile version of Firefox that could synchronise itself to your desktop copy of Firefox, in terms of bookmarks, but also in terms of browsing history (finding sites on your mobile that you have visited in the past on your desktop), saved passwords and even browser extensions, when it makes sense.
Tristan is the president of Mozilla Europe, a not-for-profit organisation funded by donations
Software expert
Ian Moulster
Microsoft
Yes and no. It depends on how you define ‘mobile’. I think the actual question is whether the web’s future lies in the browser or outside the browser. And in fact we should be talking about the internet rather than the web. So I think it would be better to ask: ‘Does the future of the internet lie outside the browser?’, with mobile being just one specific scenario.
My answer to that question is ‘almost certainly’. I’m not saying the days of the browser are over but I do think we’re already seeing and will continue to see the internet in more places and more situations that aren’t dependant on the browser. Mobile devices, whether phones, PDAs or in-car devices, are already getting pretty sophisticated when it comes to taking advantage of the internet. And most people agree that it’s a trend that’s likely to continue as wireless broadband – however it’s delivered – becomes more prevalent and the devices themselves get more sophisticated.
Getting your website to render properly on a mobile device’s browser is a useful thing to do and makes sense, but really it’s just a tiny first step. The road ahead is one where the internet becomes increasingly pervasive and increasingly ‘in the woodwork’ rather than being something you explicitly access via a browser.
Ian is senior product manager in Microsoft’s Developer & Platform division in the UK
Interactive media
Paul Dawson
Conchango
Maybe ... Mobile is certainly the way that a large proportion of the world is experiencing the web for the first time. Just look at the Far East and other developing nations and you’ll see a flurry of things like mobile-only social networks opening up. This suggests that mobile is a massive force in the emerging world, and that this will drive the development of user interfaces and usability, which will ultimately flow back into Europe and the US. This will be a good thing because with the best will in the world, even the iPhone has a relatively bad browsing experience. Maybe things like Silverlight now being available on mobile will begin to change this, but only time will tell.
Paul heads the user experience, design, branding and digital strategy team at Conchango
Digital rights activist
Danny O’Brien
Electronic Frontier Foundation
I think the real question here is ‘And would anyone notice if it was?’. Most of the effort and puzzling over which way the web and mobile will go has been about user interfaces and revenue models. I think that the UI question, after wobbling for far longer than any of us on the web side thought possible, is finally leaning towards being mostly web. That’s to say, if you want to do a mobile-only version of your site, you should feel free, but you should probably start from the web version. You may be surprisingly happy about how a standards-compliant website will look on the next generation of mobile browsers.
The other question is revenue models, and control. And here the mobile world is far more worrying to me. The net has historically been open and simple enough for innovation to occur on the edges. Mobile operators have been accustomed to locked-down devices and total control over what data can pass over their network. I think they’re finally moving towards the internet model, but if they hold out and impose their own idea of vendor control over the mobile web – well, it’ll be mobile, but it won’t be anything like the web that we know and love.
Danny O’Brien is the international outreach coordinator for the EFF
Information architect
Mark Stockley
Sophos
Not only is mobile the future of the web, the web is also the future of mobile. Mobile devices are like portable sensors and they provide an extra layer of information when accessing the web. This information will open a whole new world of possibilities. In particular they can provide information about where you are, who you are, who you know and what you like. And that means service providers can give you very localised, timely and personally interesting information. Imagine arriving at a new town and asking your phone to recommend clubs it thinks you’ll like based on your MP3 collection, or based on recommendations from local people who have similar interests to you. You might even use your phone to pay to get in and for drinks at the bar too.
The web is also the future of mobile. If your phone has an always-on internet connection then the features it offers don’t need to be hard-wired. It’s likely that everything your phone can do will be provided by services made available from websites. That means you’ll be able to swap and change what your phone can do as easily as you can change ringtones today. Instead of upgrading twice a year you could upgrade twice a day.
Mark Stockley is an information architect for the Sophos Global Web Team.
Experience architecture guru
Elinor Hardman
Fortune Cookie
We increasingly expect to be able to get the information we need, in the format we want it, wherever we are. This might mean looking up directions to a restaurant before leaving work for the evening, or it might mean checking those directions or getting train times on the move.
Mobile devices are fabulous tools of convenience. People have them to hand when they need information, and when facing dead time (on a bus or in a taxi for example) that could be used for research, shopping, social networking or catching up on last night’s TV.
Because of this, use of the web via mobile is soaring. There are currently reported to be 7.4 million mobile internet users in the UK (12 per cent of all mobile phone users). The current key barriers to further penetration are a lack of awareness (not all mobile users know how to get online) and sites that aren’t designed with mobile use in mind.
Mobile internet use is mostly task based. When creating mobile sites or style sheets for handheld devices, companies need to consider what information users are most likely to be looking for (or what they’ll want to achieve), and create optimised user journeys accordingly. When more companies are doing this more effectively, the age of the mobile web will truly arrive.
Elinor Hardman is head of experience architecture at Fortune Cookie
