/Big Question/ System shock
18/08/2009 | Filed under Discover > Big Question
Does Google Chrome OS spell the beginning of the end for Windows??
Activist
Oxblood Ruffin
Hactivismo
Chrome will probably change the way Windows operates much in the same way that Apple’s OS X has in the past. Say what you want about the Redmond infolith, they may not be classy but they’re almost always responsive.
Oxblood Ruffin is the founder of Hacktivismo, which campaigns for free speech on the internet
Hosting specialist
Dominic Monkhouse
PEER 1
As Linux has not been the death of Windows and as no one has found Google docs to be better than MS Office, I doubt in the short term it will make ANY difference at all. In fact, Mac OS hasn’t been the death of MS Windows either, even now it runs on Intel chips. Netbooks started to ship in volume and they were all in their early days on some flavour of Linux. Microsoft’s response was to bring XP back from the dead and now more XP netbooks ship than Linux netbooks, even though there must be a small price advantage with Linux. Why? RAM is cheap cheap cheap – I bought 4GB for £30 last week – so there is no reason to limit available memory and defend this as a reason to only do Linux. EVERYONE is familiar with Windows: it’s ubiquitous, it’s in schools and offices and even old people’s homes. What will Chrome do better? What will it do faster? What is the killer application to get people to switch to Chrome? Free is not enough of a reason, because free has not displaced Windows yet.
Not everyone yet has an iPhone (I am on Orange on an HTC running Win Mobile 6.1 and very happy). Think of the millions of iPhone applications the non-iPhone users are missing out on. Do they care? NO! You can’t miss what you don’t need. However, you can be more interesting and have more success with women – I have yet to see the girl swoon when shown the man’s iPhone app, but have seen several almost drop dead with boredom.
I suspect Chrome will be the same: lots of words on blogs from the anti-Microsoft people whilst the vast majority of the world continues along on Windows for the rest of their lives. In fact the vast majority will not even notice. Some of them still think AOL is the internet.
Dominic Monkhouse is UK MD at PEER 1
Web standards expert
Christian Heilmann
Yahoo
It’s an interesting question. It will definitely be a dent in the sales of Windows but not really have an effect on the main market. If commercial, enterprise-level Windows users were embracing the web in the way the Google OS does, we wouldn’t have the IE6 issue in web development because automatic updating wouldn’t be just a nice thing to have but a necessity. When netbooks came out they came with the Xandros OS and some software, but the main focus was Firefox to go online. The sales of netbooks, however, only increased when they came with Windows. Google is a very known brand, but not connected with hardware – only to search. Google OS, however, does represent a competition that drives the web as a platform. The Office 2010 release shows that this is a market Microsoft is aware of and wants to be part of, too. I like the idea of the race as I love the web and if anything this will drive innovation. If both companies back the idea of the web as the OS, smaller companies will have an easier job of selling cloud services to clients.
Christian works for Yahoo as a web developer, and he’s a self-proclaimed “web standards nut”
Tech expert
Patrick Van Kann
Fortune Cookie
I don’t think that Chrome is the beginning of the end for Windows. The end of Windows began some time ago with the advent of viable open source competitors to both the Windows OS and Office (the lynchpins of Microsoft revenue generation). In my opinion, in the long term this will spell the end of Microsoft’s ability to generate revenue through licences for these products, a threat Microsoft certainly takes seriously, given some of its heated public rhetoric on the topic.
However, Chrome definitely poses an increased threat as it’s not simply another Linux distribution but an entirely new personal computing model – a lightweight, open source OS that’s primarily experienced through the Chrome browser. This is part of a general move towards distributed computing models (the “cloud”). This change in paradigm may hasten the decline in Windows revenues, as users who are not yet convinced by Linux and OpenOffice may well be attracted to Chrome and Google Docs.
Can Microsoft respond? Microsoft can respond by doing the same – which it’s doing in Office 2010 (web-based versions of Office applications). It could follow suit with a free ‘web OS’ version of Windows. But how would it replace the lost revenues? It would need to rival Google’s revenue generation in other areas – which so far it’s failed to do.
Windows (like everything else) is doomed in the long run – but Chrome is not the first or only contender vying to replace it.
Patrick is director of technology at Fortune Cookie
Hosting specialist
Neil Barton
Hostway, UK
There’s very little doubt in anyone’s mind that Google’s vision for the future of computing is online. For this reason, netbooks seem like the perfect target market. Offering basic web browsing, email, office tasks and connectivity, the netbook already precisely fits Google’s current portfolio, simply needing an OS to bind it all together. Coupled with the public’s familiarity with Google and Google Apps, Chrome OS seems like a perfect move for the company and the ultimate Windows netbook-killer.
However, there are a few issues which Google could stumble on. Primarily, it’s still unclear whether the public are buying netbooks as netbooks, or as ‘cheap laptops’. If it’s the latter, then Chrome OS may not be as successful as Google hopes. People looking for a cheap laptop will want to install applications, run games and use Windows-compatible software, and a netbook running Chrome OS, based on Linux, will in all likelihood not allow you to do any of this. That said, it’s certainly worth a gamble; according to recent work from research firm MetaFacts, around half of all PCs purchased in the last six months were mobile, representing a large potential market for netbook manufacturers and Google. However, Microsoft is also working hard on mobile, netbook and cloud offerings and is unlikely to give up without a fight. Ultimately, although Chrome OS does look like a very exciting development, in all likelihood it probably represents a diversification of the OS space, rather than the beginning of the end for Windows.
Neil is the director of Hostway UK
Ecommerce expert
Ben Dyer
Actinic
Does Google Chrome OS spell the beginning of the end for Windows? No. Without a major technology fracture, Windows won’t be dethroned, however much we hate it. Chrome OS may make some inroads, but without hands-on evaluation, it’s hard to predict the exact impact. However, there is one thing for sure. The Chrome OS threat will at least be equalled by the Linux distro that it’s based on.
Instead, Microsoft is in for a some golden days with Windows 7. All it needs is for it not to suck as badly as Vista. That’s an easy target, even with Steve ‘developers, developers, developers’ Ballmer at the helm. Google reminds me of the old Microsoft. Its whole OS positioning seems confused. Perhaps Larry and Serge have spent too long relaxing in the mountains quaffing great wine to remember, but they already have an OS, called Android. This is Windows 95 vs NT revisited!
Google will make some headway into the OS market but I’m sure it will be a limited success. Now if Apple untethered OS X, that really would be interesting.
Ben Dyer is director of product development at Actinic
Platform evangelist
Andrew Shorten
Adobe
Microsoft has thus far failed to provide a lightweight, cloud-centric, operating system for netbook devices and Google has exploited that opportunity. Lightweight desktop and browser-based rich internet applications represent a significant shift in how users acquire and use computer software. Many of these applications are built using Adobe’s Flash Platform, hence we’ve partnered with Google to fully support Chrome OS. There is a still a place for OS-native applications, where performance or device integration is critical, so I doubt we’ll see the demise of Windows any time soon. But for many people a free, lightweight operation system will provide everything they need.
Andrew spreads the word about Flex, Flash, AIR, ColdFusion and rich internet applications
Business specialist
Dickie Armour
Fibranet Services Ltd
I don’t think it does in the short term. While Windows OS remains the standard on most new PCs and laptops, it will take time for Chrome to get the market penetration.
I hear that Chrome OS will be great at handling applications developed by Google and it will be very fast to boot up, as the code behind it is lightweight compared to Windows.
But at the annual developers conference Google held two months ago, it admitted they were still addressing some early teething problems with regards to solving issues associated with getting client applications and web applications to work together and behave consistently.
So I think Google still have some work to do before their Chrome OS really does begin casting any serious spells over Windows.
Dickie Armour is general manager of Fibranet Services
Software specialist
Siim Vips
Modera
Microsoft Windows is pioneer of the industry that has given so much to all of us. The variety of the marketplace has been increasing for some time now, particularly the popularity of Mac OS and different Linux operational systems. Google Chrome OS will bring one more innovative alternative for these users who need lightweight everyday software without advanced features.
Google Chrome has a lot of plus points for many users and is favourable to Modera’s web-based suite of products, but it will take a lot of time for another OS provider to take down Microsoft from its throne. The beginning of the end of the market domination of Windows started long ago and the winners will be users by having more choice.
Siim Vips is founder and CEO of Modera
Media & PR expert
Tim Gibbon
Elemental Communications
Google has fired a number of significant shots across the bows of technology organisations and vendors, particularly Microsoft over the last seven months. From Google Android, the Google-initiated Open Social Foundation, Google Voice, Google Wave and Google Friend Connect and more, they have been influential moves. These moves unequivocally demonstrate that the technology company’s interests lay beyond search, although it is a major factor that is central to what it does.
We alluded to the possibility of a Google OS in 2007 in the big question Hasta La Vista and again in 2008 when we discussed Google Chrome. Stuart Dean of Cognifide asked when we would see a Google OS, so I guess it’s not a huge surprise, but rapid release of Google game-changing software has begun.
In line with a few recent products from Google, an interesting development of the Google OS is that it will be an open source initiative that embraces the ethos of the software company, an approach that’s proved to be extremely beneficial. Designed to be more lightweight, particularly for netbooks using the new Google OS, would require software to manage functionality that would have to extend web use. With Google Gears, this requirement can be met without any stretch of the imagination, making the OS a more appealing alternative for both users and hardware vendors.
It certainly isn’t the beginning of the end of Windows, because of the historic and strong relationships that Microsoft currently enjoys with partners. However, with Google’s strong brand, its movement in so many areas in direct competition to Microsoft, we may very well see some significant changes in the market over the next couple of years. The move by Microsoft to provide web versions of its new Office products is seen as a response to Google Docs. It could only be matter of time before we see Microsoft adopt similar more ‘active’ open source approaches.
Tim is director of Elemental Communications
Project manager
Ané-Mari Peter
on-IDLE
Since the launch of Android and the rumour mill aside, it has been clear for a while now that Google is looking to challenge the ubiquitous Windows OS. The announcement on 7 July of the launch of Google Chrome OS in 2010 as a ‘lightweight’ free, web-based antidote to the bloated, expensive and desktop-based Windows, running within a windowing system on top of a Linux kernel with a fully redesigned security architecture, has caused quite the furore among the Twittering classes.
Windows 7 is, however, coming to PC near you by the end of this year, and if it has decent and fast web capability there could be problems in converting users to Google Chrome:
1. Users have already paid for Windows and will want to make good on the investment.
2. Users have used Windows for years, and trust it – there is a perception issue with a search engine gaining more access to personal files and data, no matter how convenient.
3. Users will need a perception change to embrace cloud computing fully.
4. Not all Notebook users spend their days online using web apps – there are real web connectivity issues once outside main metropolitans even in developed countries such as the UK, making a web-based OS not the best ‘fit’ for all at this time.
5. The web alternatives for powerful apps such as those contained in Adobe’s Creative Suite are just not good enough yet, never mind the amount of remote processing and storage that will be needed on an already creaking internet. Bringing out a new free OS that will be as easy to use and lightweight is fantastic news – not least because it will force a focus in Microsoft that can only benefit users and future products. As they say, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings.
Ané-Mari is the co-founder of on-IDLE
Social media and comms expert
Rachel Hawkes
Elemental Communications
Google Chrome OS doesn’t spell the beginning of the end for Windows. It would be naive to think that Microsoft has not been anticipating this for some time and do not have plans in motion. What it does spell is the beginning of the end of the monopolisation that Microsoft has enjoyed with Windows (though even this is not a given).
It’s largely being assumed that because it’s Google, it will automatically be a dominant force and knock the competition out of the water without questioning how it will work, how well it will be adopted by the market and so on. Yes, naturally the media have lapped the Google OS up, but will users necessarily do the same? Do we all prefer to use networked systems and applications? No. I am avid user of Google Docs, when it suits the individual purpose. However, it doesn’t have the functionality, ease of use and flexibility that Office has. I use both, and would likely do the same with a Google operating system.
It’s not a fluke that Windows has enjoyed the number one position for so many years. Aside from the usual gripes of viruses, crashing and so on, users generally like Windows. It’s a familiar interface and it works. When that successful formula is changed too much (read Vista), it flops.
That’s not to say that Google Chrome OS won’t have its fans and avid users – it would be foolish to think otherwise. This hype is sounding familiar though: when Chrome launched, there was talk that it was going to be the death of Internet Explorer, which hasn’t occurred. IE’s market share has shrunk slightly, but Chrome only has two per cent of the browser market share. Firefox and Safari’s popularity are growing quicker than that of Chrome’s. Wasn’t Android billed to kill the iPhone also? Hmm...
I’m very much looking forward to experiencing Google’s OS, particularly seeing how that will work with Google Wave. Though I don’t think we should be fooled into thinking that it’s instantly going to be a Windows killer, there’s room enough for healthy OS competition. This ultimately benefits us – the end users – stimulating the development of more eye-popping products.
Rachel is account director at Elemental Communications
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