/Big Question/ Portable potential
24/06/2008 | Filed under Discover > Big Question
Will the mobile web dominate the future of the internet?
Hosting provider
Neil Hodson
1&1 Internet Ltd
In my eyes, personalisation and centralisation will shape the future of the web. Ubiquitous mobile access and personal web services on handheld devices will no doubt play a major part in this. However, I believe it is a misconception that mobility is the be-all. Mobility tends to be an important but secondary issue in driving consumers to do new things online. People will always be influenced more by convenience and reliability.
Neil Hodson is the UK general manager at global web hosting company and domain registrar 1&1 Internet
Platform evangelist
Andrew Shorten
Adobe
It’s going to be a big part of the web. People will expect the same content and applications that they use in their browser and on their desktop to be on their mobile, presented in a way which is consistent with existing experiences, yet appropriate for the device. As part of the Open Screen Project, we hope that Flash and AIR will contribute to making this happen.
Andrew spreads the word about Flex, Flash, AIR, ColdFusion and Rich Internet Applications
Mobile design guru
Barbara Ballard
Little Springs Design
No. Ubiquity is the future, of which mobile is a component. Here, I’m defining ‘the web’ as ‘ongoing access to remote data and logic via a variety of mechanisms’, not ‘using web browsers’.
Barbara is a mobile industry expert in product and user experience design.
Technology expert
Daniel Appelquist
Vodafone
Within five years’ time, the majority of web usage will be mobile. So yes, the future of the web is as a mobile medium, but it won’t be the web as we know it. It will be a web that adapts its presentation across a range of form factors (this is already beginning to happen) and it will web that integrates smoothly into the capabilities of mobile devices (and will continue to evolve as those devices and capabilities evolve).
Daniel is senior technology strategist for the Vodafone Group and co-chair of the W3C Mobile Web Best Practices working group
Blogger
Cameron Moll
cameronmoll.com
To claim mobile is the future of the web is to submit to the idea that the web will be relegated to one medium for consumption and interchange. I see the web being anywhere and everywhere in the future. Perhaps that’s the very essence of mobility, but I think of the web’s future in terms of stationary, mobile, in-flight, underground, etc. Anywhere and everywhere – ubiquitous.
Cameron Moll is a graphic designer, speaker, author and prolific blogger
Hosting specialist
Neil Barton
Hostway, UK
Over the last few years, mobile web has changed from a costly luxury to a practical way of communicating. Not only are people accessing internet on the move using laptops and Wi-Fi connections, they’re also increasingly using their mobile phones to access the web.
From 2006 onwards, GPRS coverage of the UK was fairly ubiquitous, data access on mobile phones became affordable and the .mobi domain name was launched, providing a solid platform from which website creators could make their sites more mobile-friendly. All of these developments had an impact on how website designers and creators thought about their websites, and how they could make them suitable for smaller screens. As developers began to use these tools, users began to realise that the mobile web is a less hostile and more user-friendly environment than it previously was. However, since then, a new generation of mobile devices have developed. The launch of the iPhone and the iPod Touch are both capable of displaying standard web pages via free Wi-Fi connections. The ‘sub-notebook’ sector has also recently been revitalised with the launch of products such as the Asus eePc and the HP2133. Furthermore, many ISPs have begun to give their customers free laptops with their internet contracts, allowing consumers to access the web on the move at a much lower cost, but not necessarily from their mobile phones.
In short, mobile web will certainly become a significant part of the internet, simply because demand exists. As long as people want it and are willing to pay for it, the mobile web will develop. However, with desktop computers more powerful and with fixed internet connections cheaper than mobile contracts, I also believe that the ‘fixed’ web will continue to be the greater part of the web for quite some time.
Neil is the director of Hostway UK
Internet researcher
Alex Burmaster
Nielsen//NetRatings
Mobile isn’t the future of the web, it is the web for many developing countries. Around 10 million people sign up for a mobile subscription in China every month. In many parts of Africa, a SIM card is the first item people buy once their basic needs are met. As mobile technology improves and prices for data services drop, billions of people around the world will have the internet in their pocket.
In the more developed countries where the fixed internet is dominant, mobile internet serves as a convenient extension to fixed internet services, building audience loyalty. Nielsen Online and Nielsen Mobile’s joint TotalWeb Report in the US showed that mobile increases fixed internet audiences by 13 per cent. This data demonstrates that the mobile internet can not only improve audience loyalty, but also grow the overall size of the pie.
Alex is European internet analyst at Nielsen//NetRatings
Rights activist
Suw Charman
Open Rights Group
It might be up and down like a frog on a pogo stick, but my favourite application still has to be Twitter, especially when paired with a third-party client like Twhirl. It’s less demanding than IRC, more public than IM, and less long-winded than email, so I find it a perfect way to kill time or procrastinate when I should be doing... no, wait, I mean, a perfect way to keep in touch with a lot of people.
Twitter is also one of the most serendipitous apps on the web. I love the way that throwaway comments can end up in all sorts of things happening that wouldn’t have happened otherwise, from trips to the pub to being invited into first-class lounges in airports. Call me old-fashioned, but I’m still in love with Twitter.
Suw is executive director of the Open Rights Group
Global brand expert
Richard Prenderville
Reebok
Research from a recent Juniper report Mobile Search and Discovery and Mobile Advertising claims that operators will abandon the walled garden model as consumers are searching for content both on and off-portal that would produce more revenue for advertisers.
Three other major findings in the report (http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewreport.php?id=105) point to a more significant change in confidence regarding mobile being a channel for business, commerce and entertainment. With these changes and growth, mobile will be challenged as a more credible platform, if its development is balanced and managed properly.
It’s not a question of whether mobile is the future of the web, but how it becomes a device that complements the way in which we use internet and related technology. More importantly it’s how we manage the technology that’s become such an integral part of everyday life. With the rapid advancement of mobile phones from RSS feeds, near-broadband speeds, blogging and video editing, we’re seeing an amazing drive in technologies that set the internet up to work with the mobile web, not override it.
For many consumers, the cost of the mobile web remains prohibitive, which doesn’t encourage them to explore the full potential that the mobile web has to offer. However, the surge in social media and networks has created a real buzz for a range of consumers and intriguing communication and entertainment tools have had a positive future in the growth of m-commence. There are some good data plans from networks such as Orange that offer ‘unlimited access’ to the likes of Bebo, FaceBook and MySpace. Obviously they’re more likely to appeal to the highest consumers of mobile data by being attractive to popular social networks rather than just strap-lining ‘unlimited web access on your mobile from your mobile’ as their selling point. For the recent Reebok redesign, mobile plays a prominent feature, in that consumers are able to send product information to their mobile phone to review later or to show friends. Mobile is no longer just a tool for communications; it’s also about personalisation and portability. Especially because in some countries mobile penetration levels are substantially greater than broadband.
Richard is head of global brand marketing at Reebok
Activist
Oxblood Ruffin
Hactivismo
The future, and the exquisite present, is ABC: anything but convention. There are so many ways to approach the Intertubes that to be stuck at a desk with a hard-wired connection is a punishment. Although to be fair, things could be worse ... one could have no connection. But all emerging signs point to wireless, device-agnostic connectivity. It’s what we used to call ‘x2x’ at OpenCola. Which basically translates as, “You can go anywhere, with anything, and do whatever you want.” So nice to see things moving along.
Oxblood Ruffin is the founder of Hacktivismo
Content specialist
Siim Vips
Modera
My favourite web apps are those developed by Google. Mobile is definitely the future of the web because more mobile users will be using the internet while on move. The devices are becoming more portable; speeds in accessing the web are increasing and availability is increasing, stimulating the interest of users, especially with the rise of social mobile networks transcending the gadget-loving fraternity (such as Dodgeball, Zingku and Zyb).
The good thing is that with all these new devices sharing the standards of the regular browsing methods, it’ll be easier for the users to surf the mobile web, which previously acted as a deterrent. WAP appears to be on its way out and XHTML and other future HTML standards will take over the mobile industry in terms of web browsing.
With more sophisticated handsets that allow the development of great applications, advertisers, publishers, networks and technology provides can deliver more interesting content. The is important, as compelling and sticky refreshable content is king for devices that lend themselves to be quick fixes to either idle time away, or be life-saving tools to answer all manner of queries.
Siim is a content management specialist at Modera
Media & PR expert
Tim Gibbon
Elemental Communications
We are already experiencing the mobile web quicker than many would have imagined. The mobile is becoming more powerful and new web services are being launched on a weekly basis. M-ecommerce has been accessible for quite a few years, but now we’re seeing well known and established organisations adopting it, so the interest and availability will follow. Again, it’s social media that will be the catalyst in making users take their journey from web to a more mobile world – not a huge stretch for many who are already addicted.
Most handsets come preinstalled with blog and RSS features enabled, allowing users to surf the latest RSS news and take photographs and send to blogs or to others instantly. The trend will soon include more accessible devices that are more video enabled and even have video editing on them, so recording and broadcasting them on the go is a real possibility. With the advent of microblogging (mobile driven) from quarters such as Twitter, UGC sites beyond the usual suspects such as Flickr accepting mobile video posts and Google pushing Android and creating some really interesting applications, the mobile web begins to move beyond just the savvy.
These are just a few examples of concerted steps to a more mobile web, with the ability to do so becoming extremely flexible and easy. The mobile phone has long been more than a device for just conversation; it’s an entertainment device, camera and video tool and even a lifestyle accessory with devices doubling as a fitness tool.
There will most certainly be more users accessing the web via mobile phones, particularly as an estimated 40 million people in the UK own a mobile phone. As the mobile audience grows in confidence, the demand for information on the go – anywhere, anytime – is only going to increase exponentially.
With more website owners taking heed and designing more mobile-friendly sites it’s quite clear that there’s a more determined effort to present better options to audiences in accessing information with a device that’s rarely out of sight or reach. The future is more collaboration between handset manufacturers, brands, website owners and Telcos to bring a more unified user experience.
The mobile web isn’t so much the future as already happening, so it’s a case of it becoming more commonplace, familiar and comfortable to everyday mobile users in line with the internet. It may take some time, but we’ll see a greater pick-up and interest from consumers and with strong brands such as Apple (the iPhone) and FaceBook pushing television commercials we are not very far away at all. Portability is key in all of this and for a lot of users (not particularly me, as I still enjoy a proper QWERTY key pad I can use), the mobile device is the most obvious to experience their web life on the go.
Tim is founder/director of Elemental Communications
Social media and comms expert
Rachel Hawkes
Elemental Communications
It’s ambitious to say the least that mobile is the future of the web. Mobile will become an integral component, but to think that it will be more dominant in our western world lives is unrealistic.
The European Commission recently published their Electronic Communications Market Report 2007, and it showed that mobile revenues had increased from €133 billion in 2006 to an estimated €137 billion in 2007. SMS still accounts for a large proportion of that revenue at 14 per cent, with data only 7 per cent (the rest being made up of voice calls).
These numbers are important because they demonstrate the market – both the consumer and the network side – is nowhere near ready for mobile to take the position of the web. Handset capability is there, but the biggest barrier is the still-significantly high data costs from mobile networks.
Accessing broadband via your laptop and a mobile data card is a significant area for growth now, and offers internet users the ability to access the web at fairly decent speeds when they are out and about. So why aren’t these same speeds available from handsets themselves?
There are a few barriers before I can see real mass web via mobile penetration levels, such as data costs (mentioned above), speed, not enough web developers building mobile friendly websites and, although the functionality is there from the handset side of things, there is still much lacking when it comes to usability.
Having said that, there are some really great things happening with mobile and the web lately, particularly when it comes to providing users with an integrated and value-adding service. For example, retailers are starting to allow us to send product details through to our mobile phone as well as being able to look up street directions on Google Maps when I’m lost etc.
Last night I was watching Channel 4’s Embarrassing Illnesses on 4oD and it was talking about how not enough women check their breasts for cancer. They showed you how to do a self-examination, and then said that the video tutorial was available on the website or on mobile by sending a text. I was already online (watching the show), but having the video available on my mobile phone was a much better option for me. I’d like to know the statistics they had for pick-up.
Rachel Hawkes is an account director at Elemental
